CocoPest Watch

ARIMA · Aurora, ZDS

Total Barangays
Pest Species
Total Reports
Trees Infested
Filters & Time Scope
Live Filtered
Loading map...
Infestation Trend Over Time
Chronological distribution of infested coconut trees across Aurora. Displays temporal fluctuation and outbreak surges across selected month observation intervals to monitor suppression and seasonal spread.
Pest Species Distribution & Damage Proportion
Proportional breakdown of coconut pest species across all reported incidents. Highlights dominant threat species (e.g., Coconut Leaf Beetle, Red Palm Mite, Scale Insect) and their relative share of damaged coconut palms.
Standard ARIMA (1,1,1) Trajectory & Model Comparison
AR(1)=0.65 · MA(1)=0.30
Plots observed ground infestation counts alongside standard ARIMA (1,1,1) model projections. Includes interactive multi-select filters and client-side in-sample backtesting to evaluate predictive accuracy against historical records.
Empirical Accuracy
94.2%100 - MAPE
Mean Abs Error (MAE)
±32palms / mo
Error Rate (MAPE)
5.8%rel deviation
Next Projected Peak
Calculated95% CI
Multi-Filters: